Elections Macron – Le Pen: What do the latest electoral polls say in France? | Kiko Llaneras newsletter

The French vote on Sunday to choose their next president, again choosing between centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. The latest polls give a considerable advantage to Macron, who is around 55.5% of the vote in the polls, compared to 45.5% for Le Pen.

The incumbent president’s lead has widened to over 10 points, after narrowing to just 4 just before the first round two weeks ago. In that vote, Macron was the most voted candidate with 27.8% of the vote, followed by Le Pen, who achieved 23.1%. Eliminated were the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who added 22% of the support, the far-right television polemicist Éric Zemmour (7.1%), the conservative candidate Valérie Pécresse (4.8%), the environmentalist Yannick Jadot ( 4.6%) and the socialist Anne Hidalgo (1.7%).

Macron’s recovery is explained by the fact that he has won the useful vote against the radical right. Faced with this dilemma, the electorates that range from the left to the center-right seem to opt for the centrist. According to Ipsos polls, Le Pen will convince the majority of Zemmour’s supporters, who will choose her in a ratio of seven to one (72% will vote for her, compared to 11% who will choose Macron). However, the president wins among those who voted for Jadot (65% against 5%) and Pécresse (49% against 13%). Also in the largest fishing ground, the left that voted for Mélenchon in the first round: half of these people hesitate, do not answer or will abstain, and 18% say they will vote for Le Pen, but they are almost double, 34% , those who will elect Macron.

These flows raise the centrist up to 55% or 56%. It has a significantly smaller margin than in 2017, when it prevailed by 66% compared to 34% of the far-right leader, which is a fact that will deserve analysis no matter what happens on Sunday. But it will be enough of an advantage, probably.

Is a surprise possible?

Le Pen still has a 5% or 10% chance to win by surprise, according to different forecasts. This is what the polls suggest. The Economist (5%), betting (9%) or the Metaculus prediction community (9%). His victory is considered unlikely, but not entirely unthinkable. Partly because there are 24 hours left before the recount and partly because the polls are always an approximation exercise.

For reference, it’s helpful to remember that Donald Trump had a 20% or 30% chance of winning in 2016 (and won), but also that he had a 10% chance in 2020 (and lost). 10% is the frequency with which a specialist like Stephen Curry misses a free throw: it happens little, but it happens. These are the options that Villarreal has to win the Champions League, according to the bettors, and it is as rare, or as normal, as throwing two dice and adding 11 or 12.

You help me? Forward this newsletter or encourage someone to sign up here. It is an exclusive newsletter for subscribers of EL PAÍS, but they will be able to receive it for a trial month. You can also follow me on Twitter at @kikollanor write me with hints or comments, at kllaneras@elpais.es.