War in Ukraine: Forty days of attacks seen by satellite: the bombing that brings Mariupol to its knees | International

Mariupol is a key point on the Russian offensive map. It lies between the Crimean peninsula, controlled by Russia since 2014, and the breakaway region of Donbas, where Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that he will focus his invasion efforts from now on. Mariupol is the “land bridge” between the two zones, that is, the connection between these separate areas. And, in addition, it has a port on the Azov Sea.

Six satellite images show the impact of the invasion on this city, where 5,000 deaths have been recorded in just over a month as a result of the attacks, according to local authorities.

January 8 | Hot spots in the capital of steel

A month and a half before the invasion, the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 and NASA’s Landsat satellites showed Mariupol as it was in peacetime: a port city with a metallurgical industry that earned it the Nickname of Ukraine’s steel capital. The sensors of these devices make it possible to capture heat sources in the city that are normally associated with fires or industries whose activity emits visible heat, for example, in chimneys.

heat sources from

of industrial activity

metallurgical factory

by Azovstal

hot spots

from

industrial activity

metallurgical factory

by Azovstal

In the image, these points can be seen on a daily basis in the blast furnaces located to the north and in the extensive Azovstal factory, on the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov, while nothing is detected in the residential areas. After the start of the war, the hotspots have become a diary of the bombings, explosions and fires of the conflict.

March 9 | Siege and bombing

The first steps of the Russian troops evidenced their advance towards Mariupol from different directions. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), on February 26 Kremlin forces had already seized the neighboring city of Berdyansk to the west and the towns of Pyschevik and Pavlopol to the east, on the way from Donbas. . Throughout this month, the intense cloudiness over the region prevented the satellite measurements.

At the beginning of March, the first clearings made clear the siege of the city and the bombardments directed at critical infrastructure and residential areas intensified. The ISW interpreted this strategy as an attempt to destroy the city or force the surrender of its inhabitants. On the 9th, during the ceasefire that was supposed to facilitate the evacuations in the humanitarian corridors agreed by kyiv and Moscow, the bombs hit a mother-child hospital. Three people were killed in the attack, including a child.

A woman among the ruins of the hospital. Yevgeny Maloletka.

A toilet inside the building. Yevgeny Maloletka.

March 14 | Brutality without progress

With the city surrounded, the rapid Russian progress of the previous weeks gave way to a tense hiatus imposed by the strenuous efforts of both sides in attacking and defending the port city. Russian troops made small gains on the territory. One of them was the seizure of the Azovstal factory, which came under heavy bombardment four days later. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed on March 14 that 5,000 of his soldiers are fighting near Mariupol.

An analysis of satellite images from the same date published by UNOSAT estimated that 773 buildings were damaged during the conflict in the Livoberezhnyi and Zhovtnevyi Districts. Among these there are eight colleges and four hospitals.

March 19 | Destruction of the Mariupol theater

The complete disappearance of industrial activity in the city is clearly seen in the image of March 19. The greatest concentrations of heat sources were then located in the center, where the Mariupol theater had stood three days earlier. The bombing of this building resulted in the death of some 300 people who were sheltering inside, according to local authorities.

According to the ISW, the Russian troops were ten kilometers from the center on March 18 and the warships crossing the Bosphorus towards the Black Sea indicated the proximity of an amphibious operation designed to completely surround the city.

View of the theater in Mariupol (Ukraine) on March 19 (on the left) and March 14. AFP.

March 21 and 22 | Slow advance, constant bombardment

The superimposed images from March 20 and 21 show an intensity of war activity that, however, did not translate into notable progress by Russian troops on the ground. What is noticeable is the trace of the deflagrations: the areas where the satellites locate heat sources appear the next day darkened by the fire.

Images published on social networks then placed Chechen soldiers in the vicinity of the Azovstal industrial complex, and the ISW noted that Putin’s army was reinforcing its artillery positions northeast of Mariupol.

March 29 | imminent fall

The change in strategy announced by Russia on March 25, a day after the troops entered the center of Mariupol, did not reduce the intensity of the attacks on the city. Over the last week, Russian forces have continued their advance, described as “slow and probably painful” by the ISW.

According to the latest estimates by local authorities, 140,000 residents had left the city before the siege began and another 150,000 left afterwards, leaving some 170,000 people without access to food, water, electricity, heating or care. medical. On March 24, a Ukrainian attack complicated the arrival of enemy reinforcements by sinking two Russian ships that were in the neighboring town of Berdyansk. Despite local resistance, the fall of Mariupol has been considered imminent for days and 90% of its buildings have been damaged, according to the mayor’s office.

A teacher and a metal worker cook in a basement doorway on March 30. Alexander Ermochenko (Reuters).

A pro-Russian soldier walks through the ruins of a residential building on March 30. Alexander Ermochenko (Reuters).

A woman rides a bicycle past the remains of a burned-out bus on March 29.Alexei Alexandrov (AP).

A pro-Russian convoy on a road leading to Mariupol on March 28. Alexander Ermochenko (Reuters).

Methodology:

Sensors on the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 and NASA’s Landsat 8 satellites ‘see’ beyond the spectral bands perceived by the human eye. Thanks to these systems, an image similar to the one we would have from an airplane window is extended with additional spectral bands that allow measurements such as the vitality of the vegetation or, in this case, the heat sources visible on the ground to be obtained.

In this analysis, the images that show the true color of the terrain have been combined with the hot spots that are detected by combining near-infrared and short-wave spectral ranges.

Sources:

Sentinel-2 (European Space Agency), Landsat 8 (NASA), Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Center for Information Resilience (Cen4InfoRes)

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